UK economy returns to growth despite pre-Budget jitters, after car production resumed at JLR after cyber attack
Today’s GDP report shows a pick-up at consumer-facing services businesses in the September-November quarter.
That was driven by the travel agency and tour operator sector, by retail, and by sports activities and amusement and recreation activities.
“The UK economy returned to growth in November despite pre-Budget jitters leading to some inertia among businesses and consumers. Growth was driven by manufacturing during the month with the restart of operations at the Jaguar Land Rover factory feeding through.
“Beyond manufacturing, the economy was also boosted by a bounce back in consumer spending around the Black Friday sales. With Black Friday seemingly starting earlier and earlier each year, and more retailers participating, the high street rose to the occasion and was able to capture consumer demand in their busiest period of the year. On the flip side, the property market has been subdued since the summer with new home instructions at their lowest level since 2022 and agreed sales also falling. This inaction wasn’t limited to the property market with businesses and consumers putting off decisions until they had clarity on what tax and spend changes would be made in the Budget at the end of November.
“Today’s data is welcome news for the UK economy, with GDP growing modestly in November despite the uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget.
Given today’s figure, we now project that the economy grew 1.4 per cent in 2025 – a rise in the growth rate compared to the year before.
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